Patient value model
Access wins the start. Inertia keeps it.
Hub, prior authorization and copay programs raise the inflow of new starts. Adherence programs raise retention r. Each new start is worth net price × 1/(1−r).
Starts per 100 Rx
28.2→42.0
Rx × P(approval) × P(pickup)
Expected duration
6.7→8.7mo
1 / (1 − r)
Patient-months per 100 Rx
188→365
starts × duration
Program multiple
1.9×
Inertia multiplies whatever you win at the start.
01
Assumptions
Move a lever and the whole model updates.
Baseline
Current access and adherence
ApprovalP(approval)60%
PickupP(pickup | approval)47%
Monthly retentionr0.850
Rx to first fill30 days
Program
With hub, PA, copay and adherence support
ApprovalP(approval)70%
PickupP(pickup | approval)60%
Monthly retentionr0.885
Rx to first fill30 days
Market
Shared by both scenarios.
Defaults: IQVIA 2024 specialty baseline (60% approved, 47% picked up) vs. an illustrative hub program. Inputs are hypothetical, not benchmarks.
02
Patient access & persistence
Persistent patients = Rx × P(approval) × P(pickup | approval) × r¹²
| Metric | Baseline | Program | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approval | 60% | 70% | +17% |
| Pickup, after wait effects | 47.0% | 60.0% | +28% |
| Starts per 100 Rx | 28.2 | 42.0 | +49% |
| Monthly retention r, after wait effects | 0.850 | 0.885 | +4% |
| 12-month persistence r¹² | 14.2% | 23.1% | +62% |
| Expected duration (months) | 6.7 | 8.7 | +30% |
| On therapy at 12 months, per 100 Rx | 4.0 | 9.7 | +142% |
| Patient-months per 100 Rx | 188 | 365 | +94% |
| Value per start | $33,333 | $43,478 | +30% |
| Steady-state active patients N* | 188 | 365 | +94% |
| Cost per persistent patient | $20,775 | $13,752 | −34% |
Patients per 100 prescriptions
03
Patient stock
Steady state N* = A / (1 − r). Dashed lines mark each scenario's N*.
Active patients Nt = r · Nt−1 + At, months from launchN* 188 → 365